Report on the 2009 Survey of the Date: 5th October 2009
Introduction
This survey was initiated to assess the longer term impact of a training programme to equip people in the slums and impoverished areas around Kampala with basic business skills. The people in these areas have little opportunity for employment and rely on one of three options to sustain themselves and their families: a dependency on charity, falling into criminal activity, or their own attempts at small businesses. The programme, initiated in 2006, was designed to address the high failure rate in small businesses, which was observed to be largely due a lack of basic awareness of simple business skills. The training materials were developed to be simple, focused on the main causes of failure, exercise and discussion centred, and easy to cascade through the local structures. An initial survey conducted in May 2008 demonstrated a marked impact on business success, raising the figure for the number of successful businesses from 17% pre-training to 72% post-training. Over a period of one year, approximately 400 people had been trained through the cascade programme (where local people train others in their community on a voluntary basis), and this extrapolated to 220 newly successful businesses as a direct result of the training. This survey was conducted to assess whether the positive impact has been maintained, whether it continues to grow at the original rate, and also to look at the influence of the training and business success on employment in the area. Conducting surveys in the developing World is notoriously difficult, and we are very grateful to Mr Livingstone Mukasa for his efforts to gain accurate data through September 2009. 54 past trainees were surveyed on a sample basis across a range of locations around the Kampala area. All trainees had been through the training at least 6-months prior to the survey, and six of them had been previously surveyed in the 2008 survey.
Results The overall figures for the impact of the training in the 2009 survey are very similar to those achieved in the 2008 survey (see the table on the right) and although there appears to have been a slight drop in the percentage of successful businesses generated out of the training, this is not particularly significant and could easily be the result of statistical variation given the relatively small sample, but may also be due to a number of other possible factors:
• September (unlike May) is not a good time for seasonal businesses, and at least one of the 2009 respondents is running a seasonal business
• The minimum time period from training to survey was reduced from 9 months in 2008 to 6 months in 2009 and this may have meant that some people have not had enough time to establish their business.
• A greater proportion of the trainees surveyed in 2009 started from a base of having no business at all, and that may represent a ‘bigger hill to climb’ than turning round an existing failing business.
These last two points are reflected to a degree in the free-form comments which respondents made in reply to the question: “How do you feel about the training you have received?” In response to this question, 7 of the ten trainees who were ‘Not in business’ in the 2009 survey reported that they had definite plans to start a business, but in each case they were waiting for something – three of them for finance, one to complete their research by physically working in a business similar to the one they were planning, one to finish their schooling, one for the ‘season’, and one is still assembling what they need to do. In the event that these trainees follow the pattern of their cohort, we can expect them to push the percentage of people in a successful business to over 80%. Further confirmation of the success of the programme comes from looking in further detail at the small subset who have now been surveyed both in 2008 and 2009. While six people cannot really be seen as a statistically valid sample, they were selected as a random set and their stories offer hope even to those who are failing in business a year after completing the training. In the 2008 survey three of these respondents were in a successful business and three in an unsuccessful one. In the 2009 survey five of those same respondents were in a successful business and only one in an unsuccessful one. Furthermore the one respondent who was now in an unsuccessful business was one who had had a successful business in 2008, but who had fallen prey to the recession, and all those who were originally unsuccessful were now successful. This supports our belief, that while individual businesses may succeed or fail due to a whole range of circumstances, the training fundamentally equips people to ensure their economic empowerment on a sustainable basis, and it also gives us hope that the person who has now lost their business will soon have established another one.
Finally, the 2009 survey also asked how many people were supported by each of the businesses pre-training and post training. We asked this question because we had anecdotal evidence out of the 2008 survey that some businesses were supporting more than one person, and therefore the influence of the training was greater than could be assessed by simply counting the number of successful trainees. The implications of the table above right show that on average each successful business businesses supports two families through employment, and this then doubles the estimate of the economic impact which we previously assessed.
Assessment of Economic Impact Since the initial cascade training in 2007, we have not been able to keep track of all of the cascade channels which have arisen out of the training, since the intention is that many will be informal and ad-hoc. We have however kept in contact with two ‘organisationally supported’ channels, one through the Full Gospel Church and one through Net2Work Uganda. Between them, these two organisations have overseen the training of over 930 people to date. Based on extrapolating the statistics above for a total of 930 trainees, we estimate that the impact of this training will be the creation of over 450 newly successful businesses, and the economic empowerment of over 980 families. Using the definition of success being the ability to support the family in food and shelter and finance school for the children (a minimum of £1000 p.a. in Kampala), and assuming (based on the sustainability observed in the data) that this will be maintained for at least ten years, we calculate the economic impact of this training to be the equivalent of over £9.8M in Aid and Charitable donations. This figure is perhaps made even more impressive by the fact that it was initiated by a team of just 4 people in just 2 weeks, and by the sure expectation that it will continue to grow over time, independent of that team.
For further information on this project, please visit www.reconxile.org